For the second consecutive week, we hit our predictions out of the ballpark. We went 4-for-4 in the Games of the Week, as well as 5-for-6 in the divisional games. It continues a torrid start in the Pick’em competition, which makes us extremely confident heading into the fourth and final week of using our preseason predictions. We are gaining huge separation from the crowd.
Check out how we fared this week.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(9) San Diego Chargers (1-1) at (10) Buffalo Bills (2-0)
(15) Tennessee Titans (1-1) at (5) Cincinnati Bengals (2-0)
(4) San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at (8) Arizona Cardinals (2-0)
(1) Denver Broncos (2-0) at (2) Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(29) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at (27) Atlanta Falcons (1-1)
(25) Washington Redskins (1-1) at (7) Philadelphia Eagles (2-0)
(18) Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at (28) Cleveland Browns (1-1)
(19) Green Bay Packers (1-1) at (14) Detroit Lions (1-1)
(13) Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at (32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)
The Rest (1 point each)
(16) Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at (22) St. Louis Rams (1-1)
(12) Houston Texans (2-0) at (30) New York Giants (0-2)
(26) Minnesota Vikings (1-1) at (11) New Orleans Saints (0-2) **Lock of the Week**
(31) Oakland Raiders (0-2) at (6) New England Patriots (1-1)
(21) Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at (20) Miami Dolphins (1-1)
(23) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at (3) Carolina Panthers (2-0) **Upset of the Week**
(17) Chicago Bears (1-1) at (24) New York Jets (1-1)
Winner, winner, football Pick’em dinner. Check out this week’s and the overall numbers:
- This week’s record and points: 14-2 and 26 points
- Overall record and points: 39-9 and 68 points (81.25 win percentage)
- Games of the Week: 4-0 this week (10-1 overall… 90.91 win percentage)
- Divisional Games: 5-1 this week (11-3 overall… 78.57 win percentage) [includes 2-0 in GOTW]
- Upset of the Week: 3-0 overall (61 ranking points… 100 win percentage)
- Lock of the Week: 3-0 overall (current streak: Jets, Packers and Patriots… best streak: three weeks)
Now for the competition. I wanted this to be a 1 v. 25 battle, so I selected experts from several different publications. However, it seems like Michael Robinson of NFL Network’s Gameday First made his predictions for a one-week deal. Now, it’s one writer v. 24 experts.
Experts from a few different publications will compete. One publication that provides a litmus test is Football Outsiders, so Aaron Schatz picks are included here. Of course, there also needs to be a mainstream presence. Thus, the competition also includes the 13 experts from ESPN who publish their picks online and nine experts from NFL Network who work on either Gameday First or Gameday Morning. Finally, we close the competition panel with Pete Prisco of CBS Sports and Don Banks of Sports Illustrated.
Table 1: Expert Records and Points
| Rank | Expert | Record | Rank | Expert | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TABMathletics | 39-9 | 1 | TABM | 68 | |
| 2 | Pete Prisco, CBS | 32-16 | 2 | Prisco | 58 | |
| 3 | Cris Carter, ESPN | 31-17 | 3 | Michael Irvin, NFLN | 55 | |
| 3 | Irvin | 31-17 | 4 | Tom Jackson, ESPN | 54 | |
| 3 | Jackson | 31-17 | 5 | Carter | 52 | |
| 6 | Erik Allen, ESPN | 30-18 | 5 | KC Joyner, ESPN | 52 | |
| 6 | Don Banks, SI | 30-18 | 7 | Allen | 49 | |
| 6 | Joyner | 30-18 | 7 | Banks | 49 | |
| 9 | Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 29-19 | 7 | Jaworski | 49 | |
| 9 | Wickersham | 29-19 | 7 | Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 49 | |
| M | Mean Record | 28.16-19.84 | 11 | Marshall Faulk, NFLN | 48 | |
| 11 | Mike Golic, ESPN | 28-20 | M | Mean Points | 47.84 | |
| 11 | Shaun O’Hara, NFLN | 28-20 | 12 | FO | 47 | |
| 13 | Mike Ditka, ESPN | 27-21 | 12 | Golic | 47 | |
| 13 | Faulk | 27-21 | 14 | Ditka | 46 | |
| 13 | Football Outsiders | 27-21 | 15 | Hoge | 45 | |
| 13 | Merril Hoge, ESPN | 27-21 | 15 | O’Hara | 45 | |
| 17 | Steve Mariucci, NFLN | 26-22 | 15 | Warren Sapp, NFLN | 45 | |
| 17 | Sapp | 26-22 | 15 | Sterling Sharpe, NFLN | 45 | |
| 17 | Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 26-22 | 19 | Adam Schefter, ESPN | 43 | |
| 17 | Melissa Stark, NFLN | 26-22 | 19 | Schlereth | 43 | |
| 17 | Kurt Warner, NFLN | 26-22 | 21 | Mortensen | 42 | |
| 22 | Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 25-23 | 21 | Warner | 42 | |
| 22 | Schefter | 25-23 | 23 | Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 41 | |
| 24 | Johnson | 24-24 | 23 | Mariucci | 41 | |
| 24 | Sharpe | 24-24 | 23 | Stark | 41 |
NOTE: M = mean (average of the 25 competitors).
Last year, I beat a list of 92 experts and a coin toss to win the NFL Pick’em crown, according to NFL Pickwatch. This year, I’m off to an awesome start, as the best experts are already seven games behind me through three weeks. Each week, I have finished with the best record (or tied for the best record) among this long list of 118 experts. Also, at 39-9, we have as many or fewer losses overall than 45 of the experts on the Pickwatch had in Week 2 alone. Here at TABMathletics, where we love to talk about regression to the mean, we definitely think our hot streak will cool down. But we should still roll among the best.
Still, I’ll look to continue the momentum in Week 4. Until then…