Last week’s success leads to this week’s huge slate of games. With four Games of the Week and five non-GOTW divisional battles, there will be plenty of points at stake. If the success gets flipped around, the good vibes could quickly end. However, if the massive success continues into this week, it could mean that we can go on cruise control by October.
Now to the predictions for Week 3. Remember, by using the TABRankings as a basis for illustrating the “power” and quality of each game, the week’s schedule will be divided into three groups:
- Games of the Week (3 points each): Any game with two teams having a combined ranking total of 24 or less. Both teams MUST be within 10 spots of each other. (Thus, the “weakest” match-up will feature the seventh-ranked team and the 17th-ranked team.)
- Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each): Any divisional battle that isn’t in the aforementioned group.
- The Rest (1 point each): Any match-up that is neither a Game of the Week or a divisional battle.
This week’s predictions will again focus much on how the 2014 NFL Season Predictions panned out. Only major changes can cause an amendment to the preseason predictions. Remember, we lost our lone amendment pick in Week 2. I won’t get into the serious match-up breakdowns until about Week 5, pending on how the season predictions fare.
Games of the Week (3 points each)
(9) San Diego Chargers (1-1) at (10) Buffalo Bills (2-0)
This match-up ends being a big test for both teams. The Chargers are coming off what could be one of the biggest wins of the season by any team, and they have to travel across the country for an early game. Meanwhile, the Bills are looking the part of a contender very early, with an effective defense and solid offense. San Diego has the clear advantage of offensive firepower and efficiency. Buffalo can’t make up for that with home-field advantage, because the Chargers are 6-2 in their eight road games with a 1pm EST kickoff.
(15) Tennessee Titans (1-1) at (5) Cincinnati Bengals (2-0)
Last week, the Bengals continued their regular season home dominance from 2013. While we think that dominance will regress in 2014, it won’t be the Titans who start that regression. Expect Jake Locker to struggle against a strong defense.
(4) San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at (8) Arizona Cardinals (2-0)
We originally had these two teams splitting, with the 49ers taking the Week 17 match-up at home to get the final NFC playoff spot. Meanwhile, this was supposed to be an Arizona win to end an 0-2 start. Well, Arizona instead made back-to-back fourth-quarter comebacks. Unfortunately, the team is not expected to have Carson Palmer under center for this huge match-up. Backup Drew Stanton held up against the Giants, and we think this 49ers defense actually isn’t much better than that Giants defense. We said we’d only change our preseason predictions if there was a major change. Note that backup quarterbacks are 3-0 so far (excluding Shaun Hill, as he was the established starter by preseason), and Carson Palmer’s 85.40 passer rating in Arizona isn’t much above average. If Stanton plays just above replacement level football, there isn’t much of a dropoff. Let’s hold serve to the preseason predictions.
(1) Denver Broncos (2-0) at (2) Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
Did the Chargers lay out a foundation for victory last week? San Diego used a lot of underneath and short routes while getting their receivers in some space, thus eliminating the physical plays of the Seahawks corners. However, the Chargers converted 10-of-17 third down opportunities. That allowed those drives to be extended and the Chargers to have the ball for over 42 minutes. It required an abnormal amount of efficiency to keep that going. We don’t think Denver will have such success in Seattle in this Super Bowl rematch.
Non-GOTW Divisional Games (2 points each)
(29) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at (27) Atlanta Falcons (1-1)
We again correctly predicted the winner for Thursday Night Football.
(25) Washington Redskins (1-1) at (7) Philadelphia Eagles (2-0)
Philly scored six points in the first half through two games, but 58 points in the second half. Combine that with a good showing by Kirk Cousins in relief and a great showing by the pass rush for Washington last week, and the over-reactionists would second guess this choice. We know not to focus on one week of games, so this match-up still suggests the Eagles pass all over Washington.
(18) Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at (28) Cleveland Browns (1-1)
Perhaps the media is making too much of Brian Hoyer’s first two games. He did get things going in Week 1 until the team was down 27-3 in the second half. He then mustered a passer rating in the low 80’s in Week 2 against a Saints team that looked awful on pass defense in the prior week. A stiffer challenge awaits in the Ravens, and this will be more like a litmus test for Hoyer.
(19) Green Bay Packers (1-1) at (14) Detroit Lions (1-1)
The last time these two teams faced off, Green Bay was destroyed in Detroit on Thanksgiving. Matt Flynn was the starting quarterback for that one, which just seemed to get the team off on an awful foot. This match-up will be different, because Aaron Rodgers will force Matthew Stafford to be more aggressive. That historically has led to turnovers.
(13) Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at (32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)
Both of these teams let the Eagles get away with a multi-score second half comeback, but their “other” game told very different stories. Last week, the Jaguars didn’t look one bit better than the team that struggled immensely in 2012 and 2013. Meanwhile, the Colts stare down a stretch of three AFC South games in four weeks, so their 0-2 start could quickly be a thing of the past.
The Rest (1 point each)
(16) Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at (22) St. Louis Rams (1-1)
In DeMarco Murray’s two games against the Rams, he ran for a combined 428 yards on 51 attempts. That creates a 8.39 yards per rushing attempt average. Add in the 167 yards he gained last week on 29 attempts (5.76-yard average), and it seems like the stars are aligning for the running back. It also helps that Tony Romo should provide more efficiency and firepower in the passing game than whoever starts between Shaun Hill and Austin Davis. Also, the Chris Long absence will hurt the St. Louis pass rush.
(12) Houston Texans (2-0) at (30) New York Giants (0-2)
Here’s the last chance for the Giants, as we try the upset again. The Giants truly have a season to steer straight. Lose this second consecutive home game and start 0-3, and it will mark the end of the road for this era of New York Giants football. Yes, we said now’s not the time to overreact, but here’s the exception to the rule.
(26) Minnesota Vikings (1-1) at (11) New Orleans Saints (0-2) **Lock of the Week**
Something just makes me wonder why the Vikings didn’t initially have Adrian Peterson deactivated for four games, starting with Week 2. From a football standpoint, there are three games the team is hard-stretched to win (v. Patriots, at Saints and at Packers). From a “do the right thing” standpoint, that would’ve given Minnesota four weeks to get enough information. The Friday-to-Monday to deactivate and reactivate was far too quick. The simply ignited the public’s wrath and make it a necessity to send Peterson home indefinitely. Now that the soapbox commentary is complete, we say to “lock it up” with the Saints. There isn’t some football controversy here.
(31) Oakland Raiders (0-2) at (6) New England Patriots (1-1)
We’d make this a lock, but we’ll save the Patriots for another week.
(21) Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at (20) Miami Dolphins (1-1)
Originally as a battle between two desperate 0-2 teams, we had the Chiefs losing in Miami. This was before the Chiefs were decimated by injuries. Jamaal Charles. Derrick Johnson. Eric Berry. Mike DeVito. Kansas City is in great danger.
(23) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at (3) Carolina Panthers (2-0) **Upset of the Week**
Just like last week, we have the Sunday Night Football game featuring the road team 20 spots worse than the home team. Just the last week, we’re going with the upset. We had this in there preseason, and we’re 4-0 between these two teams from the Week 1 and Week 2 predictions. The Steelers are definitely looking shaky right now, but they’ve had extra time to get ready for this one.
(17) Chicago Bears (1-1) at (24) New York Jets (1-1)
The Jets might be in a good spot for the upset, especially if Brandon Marshall and/or Alshon Jeffery can’t play. However, we’ll take those two guys connecting with Jay Cutler over the Geno Smith-led Jets.
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P.S.: I locked in these picks early on Thursday morning. We’re going to have some fun with some friends with these picks. Let’s see if it holds! (Last week’s 13-3 record would’ve done very well, so we’re ready to try this out.)
