NFL 2013 TABRankings: Postseason

After the 43-8 demolition from the Seattle Seahawks over the Denver Broncos, there was no doubt that the Seahawks would end up as champions in the 2013 TABRankings. The only question was by how much they would hold the top spot.

In the end, Seattle finished in the spot of the rankings by 166.73 points. That differential is greater than the TABR total for 12 teams overall. After their loss, the Broncos are closer to the eighth-ranked Colts than the top-ranked Seahawks. It just goes to show how much the Super Bowl champions are definitively better than rest. In the offseason, I will go back as far as possible with the TABRankings to see where the 2013 Seahawks match up with other great teams in history.

Now let’s look the formula for the postseason rankings. The rankings formula looks like so:

The TABRankings postseason formula:
(Regular Win Pct x 2)+(Post “Win Pct”)+(Regular Pyth Pct)+(Post Pyth x 0.2)+(Overall Div Pct x 0.5)+(Overall Qual Pct x 0.5)+(Overall 3rd/4th Down Diff x 1.75)+(Regular TO Margin x 3)+(Post TO Margin x 5)-(Regular FK Diff x 0.75)-(Post FK Diff)+(Regular Sack Diff x 0.75)+(Post Sack Diff)+(Reg Time Ahead Avg x 1.2)+(Post Time Ahead x 0.1)+(Reg Time Ahead Big Avg x 1.5)+(Post Time Ahead Big x 0.2)+(Weighted Real Quarterback Rating Diff x 1.2)+(Regular Relative Pts Avg x 1.8)

Remember, the postseason winning percentage will account for “total playoff weeks played or on bye” divided by “potential playoff weeks.” As a result, each team eliminated in Wild Card Weekend will receive 25 points. Each team that advanced to Division Weekend will receive 50 points. The Conference Championship teams will receive 75 points. Finally, the Super Bowl teams will receive 100 points. Furthermore, to reward the team that wins Super Bowl XLVIII, it will receive 50 extra points.

Now that we have our RAW TABR set up, we need to add in schedule adjustments to get our Total TABR. Remember, the adjustments are made from totals relative to the league average. They account for the strength of schedule for each team via the rankings.

The TABRankings opponent adjustment for the 2013 NFL Postseason:
(Gross Opponent TABR / Games Played) – League Average TABR
NOTE: The multiple will be determined to be a number X near to the variable that fits the equation:
(1/6) * TABR IQR = Y * Adjustment IQR. For this week, the multiple was determined to be 0.8.

With now all that put together, the results for the 2013 NFL Postseason are available below. Note that “RS” will refer to team’s ranking from the 2013 regular season. Overall, the changes were minimal. Much of that has to do with the playoff outcomes happening as expected by the ranking. As you saw through the weeks, there was only one true outlier in the bunch from week to week. That involved the Green Bay Packers making the postseason, so they naturally make the biggest improvement.

The TABRankings top eight:
1, 2, 3, 4
5, 6, 7, 8

True TABRankings — Postseason